On Tuesday the New York Times ran a story on Russia giving an ultimatum to Iran regarding uranium enrichment. According to the report, Russia has threatened to refuse delivery of nuclear fuel for Bushehr if Iran does not stop uranium enrichment. By Tuesday evening, both the Russian and Iranian governments were denying this account, but that is probably to be expected.

NYT stated that, according to anonymous European, American and Iranian sources, Russia threatened Iran last week during negotiations over Bushehr.

The ultimatum was delivered in Moscow last week by Igor S. Ivanov, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council, to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran’s deputy chief nuclear negotiator, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a confidential diplomatic exchange between two governments was involved.

[snip]

In a flurry of public comments in the past month, Russian officials acknowledged that Russia was delaying the delivery of fuel to the reactor in the Iranian port city of Bushehr. It blamed the decision on the failure of Iran to pay what it owes on the project, not on concerns about nuclear proliferation.

But last month, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov informed some European officials that Russia had made a political decision not to deliver the fuel, adding that Russia would state publicly that the sole reason was financial, European officials said.

And then last week, a senior Iranian official confirmed in an interview that Mr. Ivanov had threatened Iran with an ultimatum: The fuel would be delivered only after Iran’s enrichment of uranium at Natanz was frozen.

The story caught my attention of course, first because it suggests a significant change in the Russian position. Up till now, the Russians have tried very hard to keep the Bushehr project disconnected from the disputes on Iran’s enrichment and possible weapons program. But this news was also interesting because a quick search showed that it is based on NYT’s exclusive sources; all other news stories referenced this one rather than any other direct information.

Later Tuesday evening, the Russian National Security Council issued a statement denying the ultimatum.

“The assertion of the newspaper that the Russian side, as part of Russian-Iranian consultations in Moscow on March 12, supposedly delivered some sort of ultimatum is not true,” Russia’s security council said in a statement.

Iranian officials also denied being given an ultimatum

Ali Husseini Tash, undersecretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told reporters in Tehran he had not been given the ultimatum in Moscow last week as the newspaper reported.

Iranian officials did meet in Moscow with the secretary of Russia’s national security council, Igor Ivanov, but Husseini Tash said the talks did not involve Iran’s uranium enrichment.

I can think of several reasons why Russia and Iran would jump to deny this story. The negotiating positions could still be flexible, and public talk of an ultimatum would make if difficult for the countries to backtrack to a milder solution. Or, if a threat to link fuel delivery to uranium enrichment was indeed made, but then either Russia backed away or Iran compromised elsewhere, there would be few reasons to reveal that the dispute had escalated beyond previously stated positions.

If Russian officials have interests in preserving their argument that Bushehr work must not fall under sanctions, then they must of course deny that they themselves consider any linkages between the commercial cooperation and Iran’s other nuclear activities.

Finally, agreeing with the U.S. does not seem to go over well in Russia these days. Russia would not want to appear to have given into US pressure, even if its frustration with Iran has indeed grown considerably. At the same time, Iran would doubtfully admit increased isolation from its most important supporter, especially since Russia is, publicly, denying it too.