Sorting out my accumulated junk that has, for the past few years, been slowly mouldering in my dad’s attic, I recently found my copy of Peter Hennessy’s brilliant The Secret State, a political history of British nuclear policy during the first half of the Cold War.

In one memorable section (particularly relevant given recent revelations about British nukes and bicycle locks), Hennessy addresses one of the problems that the British government had to deal with when Polaris SSBNs were introduced. If the UK is effectively destroyed by a pre-emptive nuclear attack, it might be impossible to order a retaliatory strike.

Deterrence therefore requires that British submarines are able to launch a counter-strike without specific authorization from the PM (I presume the same is true for US SSBNs but have never seen it discussed). The question that confronted British policy makers was therefore:

…‘How could the submarine Commander persuade himself that an attack had happened?’ He can scour the airwaves for anything being broadcast but cannot radio out seeking instructions for fear of giving their position away to enemy hunter-killer submarines. How could he be sure that the UK had suffered a catastrophic nuclear assault without an authenticated message from a bunker-protected premier or designated deputy? One of the very last tests—over several days—is that the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme has been silenced (a pleasing last touch of national identity, in every sense, I have always thought).

(If you’re not British, it might be helpful for me to add that Today is a very long-running morning radio news programme and something of a national institution. Coincidentally, it had some fun this morning with Tony Blair’s appearance on President Bush’s Christmas video.)

Anyway, having assured himself of the UK’s demise, the submarine Commander then opens the PM’s orders which are kept in a safe. Indeed, one of the first duties of any new PM is to write new orders, which are delivered to the submarines by the most senior civil servant in the country, the Cabinet Secretary (the old orders being burnt). The contents of the orders are never revealed but a “veteran nuclear planner” has told Hennessy that

…it can instruct one of four things:

1: Put yourself under the command of the United States, if it is still there.
2: Make your way to Australia, if it is still there.
3: Get on with it and take out Moscow [or the capital of whichever country has initiated the attack].
4: Use your own judgement.

I have heard senior Royal Navy figures who have been fully indoctrinated into the end-of-the-world drills suggest that (4) is a real possibility even if the envelope contained (3).

Speaking of Australia, I leave for there tomorrow, so my rate of posting might slow for a bit. If I sound smug about spending two and half weeks Down Under, we’ll it’s probably because I am.